5 November 2026
Is There a Real Estate Bubble in Turkey in 2026?
In this article
UBS index and bubble indicatorsPrices in lira and dollarsConstruction costsWho buys property?Districts and overheated propertiesThe 7% liquidity filterI am often asked whether there is a bubble in Turkey’s real estate market and whether prices might collapse in a year. It is a reasonable question: prices rise by 20–30% a year in lira, which can look like a buying frenzy from the outside. I have lived and worked in Turkey since 2020, invest personally in Antalya, Istanbul, Mersin and Bodrum, and have worked in real estate and property law since 2007. In this article, I assess Turkey’s market against the same indicators UBS uses to identify bubbles and explain where your capital is on firmer ground and where it is better not to invest.
At a glance: Turkey’s property market in five facts
- Growth in dollars is moderate: over 12 months, Antalya rose 4.7% and Istanbul 7.3%. Bubbles do not grow like that.
- Construction costs rose 29.6% in lira over the year, faster than housing prices. Prices have a firm underlying floor.
- More than 98% of buyers are local, and mortgages account for less than 20% of transactions. The market rests on buyers’ own money rather than credit and speculation.
- Istanbul and Antalya are absent from the UBS 2026 index. Against its criteria, Turkey’s market does not look overheated.
- Bubbles do exist at the level of individual properties. Truly liquid properties represent around 7% of the total supply.
What is a real estate bubble, and what does the UBS 2026 index say?
A bubble forms when housing prices lose touch with fundamentals. People buy not to live in a home or rent it out, but because they believe prices will rise forever. Prices grow faster than incomes and rents, while demand depends on cheap credit.
Swiss bank UBS publishes its Global Real Estate Bubble Index every autumn. It examines five factors: prices relative to residents’ incomes, prices relative to rents, mortgage growth, construction volumes and the divergence between city and national prices. The 2026 edition was released on 22 September and covered 23 cities.
| UBS bubble risk | Cities |
|---|---|
| High | Zurich, Tokyo |
| Elevated | Miami, Dubai, Seoul, Geneva, Lisbon |
| Moderate | Los Angeles, Sydney, Toronto, Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, Amsterdam, Madrid, Frankfurt, Munich, Milan |
| Low | Paris, London, New York, San Francisco, São Paulo |
Source: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026.
Istanbul and Antalya are not on the list.
Why do lira prices look alarming while dollar prices look reassuring?
The main reason people talk about a bubble is the figures in lira. Over the year, Antalya prices rose 23.7% and Istanbul prices 26.8%. But over the same 12 months, the dollar appreciated 18.15% against the lira, from TRY 41.85 to TRY 49.45. For a foreign buyer measuring returns in dollars, the dollar figure is the one that matters.
| City | 12-month growth, TRY | USD/TRY increase | 12-month growth, USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antalya | +23.7% | +18.15% | +4.7% |
| Istanbul | +26.8% | +18.15% | +7.3% |
Sources: Endeksa (Antalya), Central Bank of Turkey housing price index (Istanbul), central bank exchange rates on 16 October 2025 and 16 October 2026. Dollar growth is calculated by dividing the lira price growth factor by the exchange-rate growth factor.
Annual dollar growth of 4.7% and 7.3% is moderate, healthy growth. In a bubble, prices soar by 15–20% in hard currency year after year. Turkey’s buying frenzy peaked in 2022, when foreign buyers bought almost indiscriminately. Developers subsequently adjusted prices to realistic levels, and today the market is growing on local demand rather than overheating.
Can prices fall below construction costs?
No, and this is one of the strongest arguments against a bubble. Residential construction costs in Turkey rose 29.6% in lira over the year. That is faster than housing prices: developers are not simply marking prices up; they are barely keeping pace with cement, steel and labour costs. In a bubble, the opposite happens: prices move far above costs.
The second important figure is that construction is contracting. In the second quarter of 2026, permits for apartment construction were down 9.5% from a year earlier. A bubble usually comes with a building boom and excess empty apartments. Turkey is moving in the opposite direction, towards a shortage of new housing.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual residential construction cost growth, TRY | +29.6% |
| Annual housing price growth, TRY (Antalya / Istanbul) | +23.7% / +26.8% |
| Apartment construction permits, Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025 | −9.5% |
Sources: TÜİK (construction cost index and building permit statistics), Endeksa, Central Bank of Turkey.
My view as an investor is that when building becomes more expensive and fewer homes are built, a shortage of new apartments follows within two to three years. In my assessment, that could add another 15–20% to prices. In other words, Turkish property prices stand on a firm foundation of construction costs rather than thin air.
Who buys real estate in Turkey, and with whose money?
Bubbles burst when a market depends on borrowed money: cheap mortgages or a wave of foreign speculators. Turkey currently has neither.
| Indicator | September 2026 | January–September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Total home sales | 142,390 | 1,092,919 |
| Mortgaged sales | 23,397 (16%) | 212,210 (19%) |
| Sales to foreigners | 2,167 (1.5%) | 15,308 (1.4%) |
Source: TÜİK, September 2026 housing sales statistics, published 16 October 2026.
More than 98% of buyers are local residents, and most pay with their own money. Mortgages account for less than a fifth of transactions, and rates are high: cheap credit is not available. That means there is no large group of buyers likely to panic-sell at the first sign of trouble. Foreigners account for roughly 1.5% of the market, which does not depend on them. For a foreign investor, that is an advantage: a liquid property can always be sold to a local buyer.
Do rents support property prices?
Yes. Rents for new tenants rose 26.6% in lira over the year, or approximately 7% in dollars. Rents are growing at least as fast as prices, meaning prices are supported by real demand to live in these homes. In a bubble, prices run ahead while rents stand still, and an apartment takes 30–40 years to pay for itself. My liquid properties in Antalya and Istanbul generate around 7–8% a year in dollar rental yields.
Sources: Central Bank of Turkey and Endeksa (rents), and the author’s personal experience.
Which districts are growing, and can individual properties be overheated?
The overall market is growing healthily, but districts are moving at different speeds. Some lead because of demand from local residents; others are standing still. Overheating can occur in individual properties rather than entire districts, and a few simple signs can help identify it.
| District | City | 12-month growth, USD |
|---|---|---|
| Üsküdar | Istanbul | +19.8% |
| Küçükçekmece | Istanbul | +18.8% |
| Pendik | Istanbul | +18.6% |
| Bakırköy | Istanbul | +16.1% |
| Muratpaşa | Antalya | +12.3% |
| Kepez | Antalya | +11.5% |
| Konyaaltı | Antalya | +7.8% |
| Maltepe | Istanbul | +6.6% |
| Aksu | Antalya | +1.9% |
| Alanya | Antalya | −0.2% |
Source: Endeksa, October 2026, converted to dollars using Central Bank of Turkey exchange rates.
A pattern emerges. Urban districts where local people buy and rent are growing: places with public transport, jobs, schools and hospitals. Developments built mainly for foreigners are standing still. In 2022, foreign demand pushed resort-project prices above the local market, and reality is now catching up with those prices.
Signs of a property bubble
- The developer’s price is substantially above resale prices in the same district, in comparable complexes with similar facilities and concepts.
- Almost all buyers in the complex are foreign, with no local owners.
- You are promised annual returns of 10–15% or a quick resale during construction.
- Resale apartments in the same complex are listed below the developer’s price, and these listings account for more than 10% of all apartments in the complex.
My own investment cases
I am not speaking from hearsay: I invest in Turkish real estate myself.
| Property | Outcome | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Antalya, Konyaaltı | +25% in 2 years; rental yield around 8% | Central urban location, local demand |
| Istanbul, Maltepe | +15% in 1.5 years; rental yield around 7% | Asian side, an active urban district |
| Mersin, new build | +5% in 2 years; rented out | Low liquidity |
| Bodrum, 2+1 with a garden | Unsold for almost a year | I bought emotionally without checking who the next buyer would be |
Bodrum is my personal example of a small bubble. A beautiful complex, views and attractive instalments in lira. But I did not think about the next buyer or tenant. Mistakes like this led me to develop my ten liquidity metrics.
How to avoid buying a bubble: the 7% filter and the Swiss approach
In my experience, truly liquid properties make up around 7% of the total supply, and Turkey is no exception. Before paying a deposit, I check a property for bubble risk with four questions.
- What is happening on the resale market in this very complex? No listings, or prices above the developer’s price, are a good sign. Lower prices are a warning if such listings represent more than 10% of all apartments in the complex.
- Who is buying? If local people are buying, the property can be resold on the Turkish market. If only foreigners are buying, you depend on tourism trends.
- How does the developer’s dollar price compare with 2022–2024? If it is lower now, the price has become more realistic, which is positive.
- What rent is actually being paid in this complex? Look at current contracts and listings, not advertising promises.
This is the same principle on which Swiss banks built their reputation. They were known not for spectacular returns, but for capital that survived crises and passed to the next generation. Turkey offers similar foundations today: full ownership title, protection of foreign owners’ rights on equal terms with citizens, inheritance and deep local demand. But a safe is only reliable if the property you put inside it is liquid.
My conclusion
There is no bubble in Turkey’s real estate market. Growth in dollars is moderate, construction costs are rising faster than prices, fewer homes are being built, and local buyers are using their own money. Bubbles exist in individual properties built for foreigners and sold on promises. In my view, now is a good time to enter, but only within the 7% where prices are supported by local demand and real rental activity.
Frequently asked questions
Will property prices in Turkey crash?
I do not see grounds for a market-wide crash. Construction costs are rising, fewer homes are being built, and local demand is strong. Individual resort projects bought at the 2022 peak may become cheaper.
Why are prices rising 20–30% a year in lira?
Because the lira is weakening against the dollar. Over the past 12 months, USD/TRY rose 18.15%, leaving dollar growth of 4.7% in Antalya and 7.3% in Istanbul.
Is Turkey included in the UBS bubble index?
No. The 2026 edition covers 23 cities, none of them in Turkey. Against the index’s criteria, Turkey’s market does not look overheated.
Is now a good time to buy property in Turkey?
Yes, if the property is liquid. Construction is contracting, and in two to three years there will be a shortage of new housing.
Which districts are growing fastest?
Annual dollar growth is led by Üsküdar (+19.8%), Küçükçekmece (+18.8%) and Pendik (+18.6%) in Istanbul, and Muratpaşa (+12.3%) and Kepez (+11.5%) in Antalya.
How can I tell whether a property is overheated?
Compare the developer’s price with resale prices in the same complex, find out who buys there and check actual rents. Promises of 10–15% annual returns are a reason to be cautious.
How DDA Real Estate Turkey helps
We check every property against ten liquidity metrics before offering it to a client. We examine resales within the complex, the mix of buyers, the developer’s price history and actual rents. If a property is overheated, we say so, even if it is beautiful. DDA Real Estate Turkey is a licensed agency with offices in Istanbul and Antalya. We manage the transaction from selection to title registration, then help you rent out or sell the property. Contact us at en.ddakey.com, and we will assess the property you are considering for bubble risk.
About the author
Sergei Dubinets is the founder and head of DDA Real Estate Turkey, a licensed broker, entrepreneur, investor and economist. He has lived and worked in Turkey since 2020 and has worked in real estate and property law since 2007. He personally invests in Turkish property and divides his time between Antalya and Istanbul. en.ddakey.com
Sources
- UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026
- TÜİK: housing sales statistics (September 2026), construction cost index, building permits (Q2 2026).
- Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB): housing price index (KFE), USD/TRY exchange rates on 16 October 2025 and 16 October 2026.
- Endeksa: prices and rents by district in Istanbul and Antalya, October 2026.
This article is for information only and does not constitute personalised investment advice.
